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18 May 2007

EURUSD - Up or Down?

EURUSD - Up or Down?



As fast the rally during 11-16 May was, the distance was covered back even faster and price with almost where it started.

This fast up and down move created a small puzzle for us - which way we have to chose? On the one hand we have bearish fractal and a retracement move on the daily chart where it does not seem to be at the end. Also the most recent Bearish Fractal has been easily taken.

On the other hand we have a Bullish Divergent Bar (tonight another one was formed) supported by upward acceleration and the inability even to touch the recent bottom. The strong down impulse that took the last Bearish Fractal seems to be already out of power.

If I decide to enter the market at all I'll follow this approach:

Will take the last signal as the most valid one and will place a buy stop order ( green line ) above the high of the DBar keeping a tight stop loss ( red line ).

Another sell stop loss will be placed below the lower Bearish Fractal again with a tight stop loss.

This way wherever the market takes on I'll be in.

Of course there is a risk market to enter a range and both orders to be opened and stop loss to be taken one after the other...

Well here is a point where no one tool could help, but your own mind. Before placing the orders trader must answer the question 'Am I ready to take this loss?'

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