Two nice new setups

AUDCHF

After the strong rally previous sessions we have two Bearish Divergent bars formed and Bullish Fractals at 1.0520 level were not taken.
Divergent bars are supported by long up move 8 green bars in Momentum and acceleration slowing.
Previous session has been traded in small range so there is an opportunity for a short entry with small risk.

EURAUD

Here we have a Bullish Divergent bar setup.

Bearish fractals at 1.5780 level have not been taken, but Bullish Divergent Bars were formed.
Again support in Momentum - 8 red bars and slowing acceleration.
Again small range and an opportunity for long entry with small risk.

GBPCAD - furious diving

GBPCAD offered a classic Divergent bar trade. Rally formed Bearish Divergent Bar, taken almost immediately.

Then we had some time to think about our strategy while market was moving in range. Ranging it formed a double tops with two Bullish Fractals, not taken.

There was a deep diving taking all sell stop orders offering to increase out profit in times...

EURCAD trade

Here is how EURCAD trade is developing this week.

A short order has opened below the low of Bearish Divergent Bar, taken on the next session. Stop loss survived during the next rally which finished forming a new Bullish fractal (never taken) and 3 red Momentum bars offering a new short entry point.

The strong up and down moves during these sessions ended into a small range while seaming power for the next move.

During this range two type of orders have been placed - stop & reverse long orders above Bullish fractals and new short stop orders below the Bearish fractals.

Latter were taken in a furious diving. These few sessions fall in the Red Zone with great opportunity to add new orders to the trade without almost no risk.

Current session is gravitating around the fresh Bearish Fractal and possible Bullish Divergent Bar. Possible because 78% Fibo level is around and the diving slope is too much acute.

So from here forward we place a sell stop order and a buy stop order, tighten the stops for the open positions and let's look where are we going...

EURUSD - Bearish attack failed

Already a week EURUSD is gravitating around 1.3450 level. It is visible on the chart that bears have been more active that bulls and their attacks gain strength and each new one is stronger than the previous.

Currently it seems we are in the next unsuccessful bull attack, which breaking the 1.3475 level though, lost steam. Because of the support of Acceleration and Momentum the chances for an up move are sill valid, but keep stops tight and eyes open for the next move.

EURJPY Bearish Setup

There is here an interesting Bearish Setup on 4 hours chart.

It started with a Bearish Divergent Bar here price drifted around for few sessions allowing to place sell stop orders.

Divergent Bar was taken furiously and our stop loss was checked but not taken while 3 red Momentum bars were formed offering a new short entry.
Meanwhile a Bearish Fractal was formed showing us where the next sell stop order should be placed. Both orders were fired in a short period.

This setup was supported with the divergence between the price and momentum where Tween Peaks signal was formed.

Now price enters into a support area around 165.50 level. If broken down there will be a nice profitable opportunity.

USDCAD - Divergent Bars on a ranging market

Here is a nice sample trading divergent bars when there is no trend

Signals and entry points are market in orange; Exits are in red.

Currently a new bearish divergent bar is forming...

False signals

False signals

Here I'll try to summarize the move in EURUSD 4 hours chart registered in last three days.

Here is the beginning - Monday 18th beginning of the European session. After the strong rally on Friday moving the price far away form the Alligator's lines and creating an acute angle we have slowing Acceleration resulting in Bearish Divergent Bar formation.
Two hours after the US session open. Bearish Divergent Bar was taken easily by the steam accumulated in the Friday's rally. Angle is closing; Momentum is down; Acceleration continues slowing. A new Bearish Divergent Bar has been formed.
Next day (19th) beginning of the European session. Again Bearish Divergent Bar was taken; move continues up but losing steam. There is almost no Acceleration. Attempt to break up 1.3430 resistance failed creating next Bearish Divergent Bar which is an outer bar in the same time
Same day - just before US session open. Outer bar is growing; Bullish Fractal is on the way. Momentum passes to negative territory (down) Price is hesitating between 61.8% down Fibonacci and 38.2% retrace Fibonacci. If there are still open long positions - they must be closed here because we have to bars closing below the pink line. If there are short open position - wait to continue down or close them at 1.3440 break up. Alligator is going to close so be careful - prepare to exit all trades.
Today (20th) before European session open. Double top formation and next consecutive Bearish Divergent Bar formation. Price failed to take Bullish fractal. Acceleration and Momentum are up after market takes breath. Looking for today development

EURUSD - few sessions later

Previous post ended with:
> Be careful because the support on daily chart for this up move is strong and this DBar could turn to a false signal easily...

Let's look on the current state of the 4 hours EURUSD chart - just at the beginning of US session.

From Friday there was an excellent entry point when all three Bullish fractals were taken.


The European session started slow (but up supported by the up move on the daily chart ) accelerating and offering another entry point at the high of the Bearish Divergent Bar.

The next step is to take the resistance at 1.342 with might turn out to a nice rally.

Keep your eyes open.

EURCAD Bearish Divergent Bar setup

What is different between this Bearish Divergent Bar setup and the same setup formed on EURUSD 4 hours chart today (look here and here )?

Here we have very strong Acceleration pushing up the Momentum, but Alligator is asleep and Friday spike up had just awaken it.

This is dangerous because once up it might start hunting and will take away this setup. We'll see in the coming few sessions.

EURUSD - new setup

EURUSD continues to offer good trade opportunities (beginning is here ).On Friday we had a furious break up taking the Bullish fractal. It was so king to retrace for those missing the entry point...

Such large moves often form Divergent bars and so does EURUSD.

Be careful because the support on daily chart for this up move is strong and this DBar could turn to a false signal easily...

EURUSD - time to close

Almost a week of nice trading session has ended. From yesterday Alligator is going to sleep (at least a while). So if there are still open positions - should be closed.

On the 4 hours chart is visible the beginning on 6 June. The 1st entry point is a little below the fractal because the change of direction was almost immediate and this fast move surprised me.

Few sessions later there were formed two Bullish Divergent Bars which seems not valid because of the lack of any angle between candles and alligator teeth - so I've ignored them. Instead a new short entry was fired on the Divergent Bar stop loss line.

There were few more entries in same direction marked with green. Sessions after the third entry were torn by anxiety whether the move will continue. It was obvious that the move is coming to its end.

Exit - marked with red - was on the second close above link line - when there was obvious that a new channel is forming.

So what's next?

It seems that there will be a correction. This is supported by the daily chart where a Bullish Divergent bar is visible and seems to be a valid one.

Be prepared and we'll see.

EURCHF re-tests Head & Shoulder's Neck line

Yesterday rally (look here ) kicked all orders out in its attempt to attach right shoulder. The attack was short and weak and turned out into a range.
Down signal are still valid Momentum and Acceleration are still in Red Zone and both are down, but let's wait to see who will win this battle.

On daily chart is clear visible how hard this neck line is :-) It is also visible that Alligator is going to wake up...

GBPAUD continues down move

Story begins here.

This pair seems to be one of the last still moving anywhere. During early Asian session Bearish fractal has been taken opening a new short position. Currently Acceleration and Momentum are down offering a new entry point.

Monthly chart shows us a possible target - 2.27 All other time frames between four hours and monthly are showing the same - strong down move. Keep your eyes open and take signals when they appear.

EURCHF has broken Head & Shoulder's Neck line

Yesterday strong move down took the Bearish Fractal and Double Bottom without any hesitation.
Taking breath market formed Bullish Divergent Bar witch does not seem valid because of its angle and position - too close to alligator's lines. Naturally for this correction Acceleration had turned up, but for the moment there is no signal for reverse.

Anyway lock your profit and let's look what will be next move.

The above point of view is supported by daily chart where we have Head and shoulder Formation and a break of the neck line. Acceleration and Momentum also support down direction.

EURAUD - time to trade

Bullish Divergent Bar seems broken and this looks like a great opportunity for short entry.
Still keeping an eye on the DBar I've placed some sell stop orders.

We could see more clear what's cooking in on the weekly chart:

Support is broken combined by turn in momentum and down acceleration.
It seems to me that there are two ways to develop - down move ending in a Bullish Divergent Bar or
Deeper diving which obey good profit... Let's see

USDCAD

Searching the probable target (read article here ) seems to end.

Today have formed two Fractals - one Bullish and one Bearish clearly defining current range. On daily chart is visible that these two days candles are almost equal. Momentum last quit long and market need to take a breath.

So it is time to collect profit and look for the next opportunity.

GBPJPY what is up?

On 04 June GBPJPY has been forming Bearish Divergent bar setup. The first two Divergent bar had been easily killed resulting small loss.

At the moment Bears are taking territory step by step. The last bearish Fractal from yesterday was taken today nevertheless the srtong support around 241.45. There were few signals so far and there is no signs for circumstances change.

Looking again on the upper time frame we can see confirmation of the yesterday setup. There is almost no acceleration in either direction. Momentum is still up but not strong and could easily change. We have a new lower low and a support around 240.00 level. So it seems that there is a room for some correction...

GBPJPY - is these DBars valid?

GBPJPY - are these Bearish Divergent Bars valid?


We can see three consecutive Bearish Divergent bars formed after the Resistance break up.

So it seems to me that there is a reason to ask ourselves how valid these signals are.

We see that the angle is steep, momentum is up and Acceleration is hesitating
(which formed these signals).

Well, I think that trader must obey signals. I was convinced of this by the market itself.

On the other hand trader must confirm for itself each of the signals and always to investigate setups.

So what we could do is to take a look on the upper time frames... And here they are:

Weekly Chart

So what are cons and pros about our setup? I've marked them on the chart.

• No acceleration
• Double Top
• Momentum Divergance

But here we have a cons - Double tops are not compleated yet. Will market reverse?

Who knows? Let's take a look on the next time frame.

Monthly chart

We see the same Double tops also on this chart. Acceleration is slowing already few months...

So back to the question - is this setup valid?

No one could be sure what will happen in the future. Traders work with probabilities only combined with their wishes.

Of course market might move up or down or sideway... This will see soon. But at this moment stepping on the ground of what we see here we could say that there is a highly probability this setup to be valid.

Let's see.

Where is USDCAD target?

The long down movement broke down... Good for us ;-)

There is no sign this move to has in mind to stop... Alligator's mouth is well opened and it is eating a lot.
There are strong Momentum and Acceleration is on. The Bearish Fractal formed at the end of the last week was taken easily opening subsequent trade.

Suspicious...

Let's look on upper time frames:

Daily char

It shows the same strong move, Momentum and Acceleration. There are two Bullish Divergent Bars that failed fast.

Nothing new here.

Let's go up - Weekly Chart.

Similar. Support has been blown out. Last week Acceleration has pumped steam. No sign for a possible target.

Monthly chart.

Here we have confirmation of this down move. Three consecutive months of down acceleration. Momentum failed to cross zero line. Alligator's opening its mouth again.

GBPAUD - "on the next day" - part three

We have a nice movie here ;-)

Bearish Divergent Bar starting few days ago (look here part 1 and part 2 ) offered a great opportunity for a profitable trade and no pitfalls at all 8-D

For a trader the only concern was to keep the eyes open and to catch each signal.

After the nice move it seems that it is time for collecting profit. Acceleration is slowing and momentum has turned up.

Looking on the daily chart we see that it is the right forming of a head and shoulder pattern, so there are to choices here:
Either to break down
or turn up

Look patiently.

USDJPY - Will break up?

Whether this is the last Bullish attempt or a break up will see soon...

The Bearish Divergent Bar formed few sessions ago couldn't break the Bulls support nevertheless the large fluctuation - almost 100 pips. Fortunately this move kept me away of loss.

The battle narrowed the range very much which was obviously to end in an explosion in either side up in this case. It is visible that the up move was predicted by strong up acceleration pushing momentum also up.

The question is: is there enough steam to break up?

On daily chart we see double top formation and divergance between momentum and price...