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04 June 2007

GBPJPY - is these DBars valid?


GBPJPY - are these
Bearish Divergent Bars valid?


We can see three consecutive Bearish Divergent bars formed after the Resistance break up.

So it seems to me that there is a reason to ask ourselves how valid these signals are.

We see that the angle is steep, momentum is up and Acceleration is hesitating
(which formed these signals).

Well, I think that trader must obey signals. I was convinced of this by the market itself.

On the other hand trader must confirm for itself each of the signals and always to investigate setups.

So what we could do is to take a look on the upper time frames... And here they are:

Weekly Chart

So what are cons and pros about our setup? I've marked them on the chart.
  • No acceleration
  • Double Top
  • Momentum Divergance
But here we have a cons - Double tops are not compleated yet. Will market reverse?

Who knows? Let's take a look on the next time frame.

Monthly chart

We see the same Double tops also on this chart. Acceleration is slowing already few months...

So back to the question - is this setup valid?

No one could be sure what will happen in the future. Traders work with probabilities only combined with their wishes.

Of course market might move up or down or sideway... This will see soon. But at this moment stepping on the ground of what we see here we could say that there is a highly probability this setup to be valid.

Let's see.

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